Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator implementation

Binding contract

This record describes what an executable surface must bind and validate. It does not claim that a public calculator, package, or production route is deployed.

Record owner

Guth Instruments

Lifecycle

verified-clean

Evidence ID

t6-061

Effect

Computation or source lookup only

Input and validation requirements

The extreme-magnitude vector produces approximately 1e616, which overflows standard JavaScript Number arithmetic to Infinity. The specification also leaves withdrawal timing and return-unit conventions underspecified, allowing materially different balances for the same apparent inputs.

Required corrections

No binding erratum is attached to this unique-name record. Implementers must still preserve the declared units, domain, and failure behavior.

Inspectable interface fixture

The sample below is evidence for interface and validation tests, not a production implementation.

{
  "inputs": {
    "starting_balance": 100000,
    "withdrawal_amount": 5000,
    "mean_return": 0.05,
    "volatility": 0,
    "years": 3,
    "trial_count": 100,
    "withdrawal_timing": "end_of_year",
    "return_model": "simple_annual",
    "return_draws": [
      0.05,
      0.05,
      0.05
    ]
  },
  "expected_outputs": {
    "success_probability_percent": 100,
    "balance_percentiles": {
      "p5": [
        100000,
        99750,
        99487.5,
        99211.875
      ],
      "p50": [
        100000,
        99750,
        99487.5,
        99211.875
      ],
      "p95": [
        100000,
        99750,
        99487.5,
        99211.875
      ]
    }
  },
  "working": "All 100 trials are identical because sigma=0. Year 1: (100000-5000)*1.05 = 95000*1.05 = 99750. Year 2: (99750-5000)*1.05 = 94750*1.05 = 99487.5. Year 3: (99487.5-5000)*1.05 = 94487.5*1.05 = 99211.875. Every withdrawal is affordable, so 100 of 100 trials succeed and every percentile equals the common path."
}

Other records

Sources and evidence

These pointers bind the page to evidence. They do not grant authority or collapse verification into deployment.

• VERIFIED_LEDGER.json
• evidence-tranche6/tranche6-results.json