Punnett-derived Carrier Risk Calculator (education) mechanism

Model scope

The existing educational and not-medical-advice label is appropriate, but the product must explicitly define genotype encoding, the dominant-trait heterozygote/carrier terminology, accepted input forms, and the exact output formulas before implementation can be verified as PASS.

• The specification does not provide explicit genotype-probability formulas or the genotype encoding needed to verify implementation.
• For autosomal recessive inheritance, the mapping of AA, Aa, and aa to unaffected, carrier, and affected must be explicitly defined.
• For autosomal dominant inheritance, “carrier” is ambiguous and is not generally a clinically appropriate category; the specification must state whether carrier_probability means heterozygous_probability (Aa).
• Parental “carrier status” alone is insufficient for some calculations unless the full parental genotype or the remaining genotype probabilities are supplied.
• The model needs an explicit assumption that each parent contributes one allele independently and that the trait follows complete, simple Mendelian inheritance without penetrance variation, de novo variants, allele-frequency inference, or linkage effects.

Units and conventions

• Probabilities are dimensionless fractions from 0 to 1; multiply by 100 for percentages.
• Genotypes use two allele symbols, with the first allele conventionally written uppercase when representing the trait allele: autosomal recessive affected=aa, carrier=Aa, unaffected=AA.
• For autosomal dominant examples, A is the affected allele and a is the unaffected allele: affected=AA or Aa, unaffected=aa.
• For dominant examples only, heterozygous_probability is reported as the probability of Aa; this must not be labeled clinically as carrier probability without an explicit product decision.
• Inputs are complete parental genotypes, not merely labels such as “carrier” or “affected.”
• No physical units or unit conversions apply to Mendelian probabilities.

Inspectable vector

One of 4 source-bound review vectors:

{
  "inputs": {
    "inheritance_pattern": "autosomal_recessive",
    "parent1_genotype": "AA",
    "parent2_genotype": "aa"
  },
  "expected_outputs": {
    "affected_probability": 0,
    "carrier_probability": 1,
    "unaffected_probability": 0
  },
  "working": "Parent 1 can contribute only A: P(A)=1. Parent 2 can contribute only a: P(a)=1. Offspring genotype: Aa with probability 1×1=1. Therefore affected aa = 0, carrier Aa = 1, unaffected AA = 0."
}

Failure boundary

BREAK_CLAIMED · SELF_FLAGGED

The specification does not define behavior for invalid genotypes, does not uniquely define the unaffected category in recessive outputs, and permits dominant affected-status inputs that conceal an AA-versus-Aa distinction. These cases can produce rejection, undefined results, or materially different probabilities.

Other records

Sources and evidence

These pointers bind the page to evidence. They do not grant authority or collapse verification into deployment.

• VERIFIED_LEDGER.json
• evidence-tranche5/tranche5-results.json
• BOUNDARY_HAZARD_CATALOG.json