Rip Current Risk Rough Estimator mechanism

Model scope

The supplied spec has a good educational-only disclaimer, but it does not contain enough information to verify a formula or reproduce an official lookup table. The four vectors therefore exercise a clearly labeled provisional rubric solely for boundary and unit-testing purposes; they are not evidence that the rubric is scientifically or operationally valid. Before release, obtain a documented source-approved algorithm or table, define all units and directional conventions, specify input validation and missing-data behavior, and retain the prominent safety disclaimer.

• No actual scoring rubric, lookup thresholds, or category cutoffs are supplied, so the claimed NOAA-style algorithm cannot be verified or reproduced.
• NOAA/NWS rip-current risk products are not defined by one universal three-input formula; local bathymetry, currents, tides, sandbars, swell direction, and beach orientation can materially change risk.
• The provisional scoring used in these test vectors is explicitly illustrative and must not be presented as an official NOAA method.
• Wind direction is listed as an input, but the required directional categories relative to shore (onshore, offshore, alongshore, or oblique) are not defined.
• The relationship between wave height, wave period, and rip-current probability is not a validated additive scoring relationship.

Units and conventions

• Wave height is significant wave height in metres.
• Wave period is dominant or peak period in seconds; the spec does not identify which.
• Wind speed is in knots in these vectors; the production unit must be fixed and displayed.
• Wind direction is interpreted categorically relative to the local shoreline, not as a compass bearing.
• The provisional rubric assigns wave-height points of 0 for H<0.5 m, 1 for 0.5 m<=H<1.0 m, and 2 for H>=1.0 m.
• The provisional rubric assigns wave-period points of 0 for T<8 s, 1 for 8 s<=T<12 s, and 2 for T>=12 s.

Inspectable vector

One of 4 source-bound review vectors:

{
  "inputs": {
    "wave_height_m": 0.5,
    "wave_period_s": 8,
    "wind_speed_kt": 10,
    "wind_direction_relative_to_shore": "onshore"
  },
  "expected_outputs": {
    "provisional_score": 3,
    "risk_category": "moderate",
    "beaufort_wind_force": 3
  },
  "reference_data": {
    "wave_height_rows": [
      {
        "condition": "0.5 m <= H < 1.0 m",
        "points": 1,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "condition": "H < 0.5 m",
        "points": 0,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "condition": "H >= 1.0 m",
        "points": 2,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      }
    ],
    "wave_period_rows": [
      {
        "condition": "8 s <= T < 12 s",
        "points": 1,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "condition": "T < 8 s",
        "points": 0,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "condition": "T >= 12 s",
        "points": 2,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      }
    ],
    "wind_rows": [
      {
        "condition": "onshore and wind speed < 15 kt",
        "points": 1,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "condition": "onshore and wind speed >= 15 kt",
        "points": 2,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "condition": "offshore or alongshore",
        "points": 0,
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      }
    ],
    "risk_cutoffs": [
      {
        "score": "0-2",
        "category": "low",
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "score": "3-4",
        "category": "moderate",
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      },
      {
        "score": "5-6",
        "category": "high",
        "source_convention": "instrument-defined provisional rubric; not an NOAA standard"
      }
    ],
    "beaufort_entry": {
      "wind_speed_range_kt": "7-10",
      "beaufort_force": 3,
      "description": "gentle breeze",
      "source_convention": "widely tabulated standard Beaufort scale; WMO/International Meteorological Vocabulary convention"
    }
  },
  "working": "Wave contribution: H=0.5 m is exactly on the 0.5 m boundary, so 1 point. Period contribution: T=8 s is exactly on the 8 s boundary, so 1 point. Wind contribution: 10 kt is onshore and below 15 kt, so 1 point. Total = 1 + 1 + 1 = 3. A score of 3 is in the 3-4 moderate band. Independent table check: 10 kt lies in the standard Beaufort-force-3 range of 7-10 kt."
}

Failure boundary

BREAK_CLAIMED · SELF_FLAGGED

The instrument cannot be evaluated from the supplied specification because its required NOAA-style lookup table, numeric score rules, valid ranges, branch boundaries, and directional convention are missing. Extreme inputs additionally expose the absence of stated clamping or overflow handling.

Other records

Sources and evidence

These pointers bind the page to evidence. They do not grant authority or collapse verification into deployment.

• VERIFIED_LEDGER.json
• evidence-tranche7/tranche7-results.json
• BOUNDARY_HAZARD_CATALOG.json